How is expected value calculated?

Expected graded value is the sum over each grade of (probability multiplied by that grade's value). It is the average value you would get if you graded many identical cards with those odds.

What does break-even grade mean?

The break-even grade is the lowest grade whose value covers your total cost — the raw value you give up plus the grading and shipping fees. Land on that grade or higher and you profit; below it you lose money.

Should probabilities add to 100 percent?

Ideally yes. The tool normalizes them if they do not sum to 100, but for accurate odds you should cover all realistic outcomes, including lower grades, so the probabilities reflect a complete picture.

Why subtract the raw value?

Grading is only worth it if it adds value beyond what you could sell the card for raw. The calculator treats the raw value as an opportunity cost, so profit reflects the gain from grading rather than the total sale price.

Does this account for the time and risk?

No. It ignores the weeks of turnaround, the risk of damage in transit, and market shifts while you wait. Treat a positive ROI as necessary but not sufficient — leave a margin for those real-world risks.

Card Grading ROI Calculator

Grading a card costs money and only pays off if the graded value beats the raw value plus fees. This calculator weighs each possible grade by its probability to give you an expected return, so you can decide whether a submission is worth it.

How it works

The calculator uses expected value across the grade outcomes:

expected graded value = Σ (probability[g] × value[g])
total cost            = grading + shipping
net profit            = expected graded value − total cost − raw value
ROI                   = net profit / (total cost + raw value) × 100

The raw value is treated as an opportunity cost — money you give up by not just selling the card ungraded. The break-even grade is the lowest grade whose value clears raw value + total cost.

Example and notes

A card worth 40 raw, costing 25 to grade, with a 20% chance of a 200 PSA 10, a 50% chance of a 70 PSA 9, and a 30% chance of a 35 PSA 8, has an expected graded value of 0.2×200 + 0.5×70 + 0.3×35 = 85.5. Net profit is 85.5 − 25 − 40 = 20.5, an ROI of about 32%. The break-even grade here is PSA 9, since PSA 8 at 35 does not clear the 65 in raw value plus fees. Always pad your estimate for turnaround time and the small risk of transit damage.