How big is a Lorcana opening hand?

A Disney Lorcana deck is a minimum of 60 cards with at most 4 copies of any card, and players draw an opening hand of 7 cards. After drawing, you may alter your hand by shuffling back any number of cards and redrawing the same number with no card loss.

Does going first change the draw count?

Yes. In Lorcana the player going first skips their first draw step, while the player going second draws normally on turn 1. The calculator accounts for this when working out how many cards you have seen by a given turn.

How is the probability calculated?

The tool uses the hypergeometric distribution, the model for drawing without replacement. The chance of holding at least the copies you need is one minus the chance of drawing too few, computed from binomial coefficients over your deck size and the cards seen.

Does this model the alter-hand mulligan?

No. Lorcana lets you shuffle back any number of opening cards and redraw with no penalty, which improves your real odds of finding specific cards. This calculator measures raw draw probability, so treat it as a baseline that the alter step improves on.

Can I use it for a 4-of versus a 3-of?

Yes. Change the copies in deck between 3 and 4 and compare the opening-hand probabilities. This is one of the quickest ways to decide whether the extra copy is worth the deck slot.

Lorcana Deck Draw Probability Calculator

Disney Lorcana rewards a smooth, consistent draw, and consistency is just probability you can measure. This calculator uses the hypergeometric distribution to tell you how often a key card appears in your opening 7 or by a given turn, with play order factored in.

How it works

With a deck of N cards holding K copies of your card, the probability that a draw of h cards contains at least need copies is:

P(X >= need) = 1 - sum over i from 0 to need-1 of [ C(K, i) * C(N - K, h - i) / C(N, h) ]

The opening hand is 7 cards. To find the by-turn figure the tool adds your draw steps: because the player going first skips their first draw, by turn T they have seen 7 + (T - 1) cards, while the player going second has seen 7 + T cards. The probability is recomputed over that larger sample.

This is exactly drawing without replacement from a shuffled deck, so the result is exact for raw draws.

Example and notes

In a 60-card deck running 4 copies of a card, the chance of opening with at least one is about 39.9%. By turn 3 going second (10 cards seen) it rises to roughly 52%. Comparing a 3-of against a 4-of with this tool is the fastest way to see how much consistency each extra copy buys you.

A few notes:

The figures cover raw draws only. Lorcana’s alter-hand mulligan and any draw or ink-search effects raise your real odds above these numbers.
Lorcana decks are a 60-card minimum with a 4-copy cap, but the calculator accepts any deck size so you can model larger lists.
For prize-style or set-aside mechanics in other games, use the companion Pokémon and MTG calculators linked above.