Scenario Planner (BYO Key)

Generate best-case, worst-case, and expected scenarios with AI

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Good planning is not about predicting the future — it is about being ready for more than one version of it. This tool takes any decision or trend and generates three structured scenarios — best, base, and worst case — using your own OpenAI or Anthropic key, each with the indicators that would tell you it is happening, all in your browser.

How it works

Pick a provider and model, paste your API key, then describe the decision or trend, choose a time horizon, and optionally name your industry. The tool builds a prompt that asks the model to write three distinct scenarios — optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic — over your horizon. Each one comes with a narrative, a rough probability, the key drivers, the leading indicators to watch, and one action to prepare. It makes one direct request to the provider and returns the full set to copy.

For Anthropic, the request includes the official direct-browser-access header so it works straight from the page.

Turning scenarios into action

The value of scenario planning is not the prediction — it is the preparation. Read each scenario for its leading indicators and turn them into a watch-list: concrete, observable signals that tell you which future is arriving while you still have time to respond. The recommended actions are most useful when they overlap; an action that helps in both the base and worst case is a no-regrets move worth doing now. Use the probabilities to weight how much energy to spend on each branch, not as a forecast you bet the company on.

Notes and limits

The model reasons from patterns in its training data, so its scenarios reflect plausible dynamics, not insider knowledge of your market — and it can miss the genuinely novel shock that no scenario anticipated, which is often the one that matters most. Treat the probabilities as discussion aids rather than calculated odds, sanity-check the drivers against what you actually know, and run the tool again with sharper context if the first pass feels generic. Scenarios are a thinking tool to widen your peripheral vision, not a substitute for judgement.

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