What is a token unlock?

A token unlock is the scheduled release of previously locked tokens — typically allocations to the team, investors, or treasury — into circulating supply per a vesting schedule. Large unlocks increase circulating supply and can create selling pressure if recipients sell.

How is the price impact estimated?

The tool uses a simplified square-root market-impact model: impact ≈ k × √(sellValue ÷ dailyVolume), scaled to a percentage. Real impact depends on order-book depth, liquidity, and market sentiment, so treat the figure as an order-of-magnitude indicator, not a prediction.

What is the unlock-to-volume ratio?

It is the USD value of the unlock divided by average daily trading volume. A ratio above 1 means the unlock exceeds a full day of volume — a strong signal of potential pressure. Below 0.1 the market can usually absorb it easily.

What sell-through rate should I use?

Sell-through is the share of unlocked tokens that actually get sold. Investor and team unlocks often see 20–60% sold near the event; community or staking unlocks are usually lower. If unsure, model a range.

Is my input data sent anywhere?

No. All calculations run locally in your browser. The figures you enter are never transmitted or stored.

Token Unlock Selling Pressure Estimator

The Token Unlock Selling Pressure Estimator helps traders and analysts gauge how much short-term selling pressure an upcoming vesting unlock might create. It turns the raw unlock size into a USD value, compares it to daily liquidity, and gives an order-of-magnitude price-impact estimate.

How it works

The calculation proceeds in three steps:

Unlock value = unlocked tokens × token price — the gross USD entering circulation.
Expected sell value = unlock value × sell-through rate — only the portion recipients actually sell matters for immediate pressure.
Unlock-to-volume ratio = unlock value ÷ daily volume — how the event compares to a normal trading day.

For the headline price impact the tool uses a simplified square-root market impact model, the standard first-order approximation in market microstructure:

price impact ≈ k × √(sellValue ÷ dailyVolume)

with a conservative coefficient. A larger sell value relative to daily volume produces a larger expected drawdown, but with diminishing marginal impact.

Example and notes

Suppose 5,000,000 tokens unlock at $0.40, on a market doing $3,000,000 of daily volume, with a 40% sell-through. Unlock value is $2,000,000, expected sell value is $800,000, and the unlock-to-volume ratio is 2,000,000 ÷ 3,000,000 ≈ 0.67. The model returns a modest single-digit-percent impact estimate.

Treat the impact figure as directional. Real outcomes depend on order-book depth, whether recipients hedge or distribute over time, and overall sentiment. A high unlock-to-volume ratio is the most reliable warning sign that an unlock deserves close attention.