A shotgun does not fire a single projectile but a cloud of pellets, and whether you break the clay or bag the bird depends on how many of those pellets land where you point. This calculator estimates total pellet count from your payload and shot size, then applies the choke and distance to predict density inside the standard 30-inch circle.
How it works
Two facts drive the calculation. First, pellet count comes from shot size and payload:
total_pellets = pellets_per_ounce(shot_size) * payload_ounces
Lead pellets-per-ounce are well-tabulated (e.g. #9 ≈ 585, #8 ≈ 410, #7.5 ≈ 350, #6 ≈ 225, #4 ≈ 135). Second, choke is defined by the percentage of pellets inside a 30-inch circle at 40 yards:
| Choke | % at 40 yd |
|---|---|
| Cylinder | 40% |
| Improved Cylinder | 50% |
| Modified | 60% |
| Improved Modified | 65% |
| Full | 70% |
Adjusting for distance
The pattern opens roughly with the square of distance, so the fraction of pellets caught
by a fixed circle scales as (40 / distance)², clamped to a sensible maximum near the
muzzle. Pellets on target is then total_pellets * pattern_fraction.
Tips
If your bird load drops below about 100 pellets in the circle, you are at the edge of your effective range — step up shot size only if you keep enough pellet count, or tighten the choke. For clays, denser is not always better: an over-tight pattern is hard to center, which is why skeet shooters favor open chokes at close stations.